The Crisis Era in Turnings Theory Terms

The Crisis Era in Turnings Theory Terms

Here is a quick explanation of the recent political upheavals in Turnings Theory terms. More on this in a future post.

In Search of a Consensus

The Third Turning triumph of capitalism and the global hegemony of the United States culminated in the dominance of the political ideology of neoliberalism. The private sector was favored over the public sector, along with an ethos of diversity and inclusiveness. U.S. elites became globally oriented, and to many it seemed that both major political parties were simply pawns of wealthy corporate interests.

Behind the facade of this New World Order, a Culture War was being fought within American society. Hard lines were drawn on issues like gun control and abortion, as the nation split into polarized opposing camps.

A disastrous war prompted by a terrorist attack soured the country’s outlook on global military intervention. Then a financial crisis precipitated by shady lending practices only exacerbated the sense that elites were simply exploiting the system for their own benefit.

Eight years into the Fourth Turning, a contentious Presidential election led to the downfall of the neoliberal regime and the rise of a new American nationalism, fiercely anti-global and tinged with white supremacy. The opposition entrenched and adopted the language of resistance. It seems a consensus was farther away than ever.

Strategy Review: Brave New War

Strategy Review: Brave New War

In my most recent posts I looked at the strategic theories of two different authors. The first was Thomas P. M. Barnett, who divided the world into functioning, integrated Core states, and their danger-producing opposites, the Gap states. His mantra was “disconnectedness defines danger.” The second was Philip Bobbitt, who divided history into epochs in which different forms of the state ruled. He taught us that the nation state is on its way out, and the new market state is taking its place.

John Robb is an author who actually references both of the previous authors, in his book Brave New War. He springboards off of Bobbitt’s concept of the market state to argue that the nature of warfare has changed, becoming network-focused, and refutes Barnett’s mantra. Basically, in the globally networked world, connectedness defines danger, so good luck finding peace through integration. Better to develop doctrines of fighting networked war.

A war fought between social networks is exactly how Robb portrays the current Crisis Era in American politics. He calls this “open source warfare” in that anyone can participate in an era when the Internet gives individuals powers of surveillance and intelligence gathering that were once reserved for governments. You can follow more of John Robb’s analysis of current events here at his blog.

The Crisis Era in Market State Terms

The Crisis Era in Market State Terms

My last post looked at the strategic theory of Philip Bobbitt, and his idea that we are in an era of transition from the nation state to the market state. Here is how I think he would explain the recent political upheavals.

Birth Pangs Of The Market State

The U.S. victory over the U.S.S.R. marked the end of the nation state era. Even as this final conflict resolved, the new market state was coming into existence, a reaction to the change in the strategic landscape wrought by the very technologies that had allowed the U.S. to prevail – weapons of mass destruction, global communications, and advanced computers.

Where the nation state derived its legitimacy from managing the national economy to advance the welfare of its citizens, the market state seeks to maximize economic opportunity for its citizens while advancing their safety and security. Nationalist economic policy was no longer viable in a world of information overload and superempowered individuals.

The governments of the world are straining as this regime transformation takes place. In the United States, a TV celebrity con artist exploited the anxieties of the public to rise to the office of the Presidency, with a corrupt and kleptocratic agenda that threatens to bring about a Constitutional crisis. The young and fragile European Union is near collapse, and the old alignments, alliances and conventions of the nation state order are in question.

What form will the market state take in the end?

Strategy Review: The Emerging Market State

Strategy Review: The Emerging Market State

Although the books were published around the same time, it wasn’t until some time after reading The Pentagon’s New Map that I discovered The Shield of Achilles, by Philip Bobbitt. Bobbitt is a constitutional law expert, and this very long book (usually described as “magisterial”) formulates a theory of the evolution of the state as proceeding through periodic “epochal wars” which redefine the constitutional order. As each new form of the state is legitimized, the seeds are planted for the growth of the form which will come to replace it. Thus he describes a kind of historical cycle, to join many others which have been postulated.

Bobbitt traces the emergence of the state to Renaissance Italy and the philosophy of Niccolò Machiavelli. He then describes an evolutionary sequence from the first “Princely states” of the Renaissance to the modern nation state. Each time the state transforms, it is because after a constitutional order is legitimized by victory in the epochal war, the very factors which led to that victory proceed to undermine and delegitimize it as future events unfold. In the case of the “nation state” order, Bobbitt identifies its legitimization with the West’s Cold War victory, the culmination of a Long War against first Fascism, and then Communism, both constitutional orders competing with the Liberal Democratic Western order. It was advancements in high-speed computing and telecommunications which eventually secured this victory.

In the 21st century, these very advancements have empowered individuals, diminished the state’s ability to influence the economy, and generated new security threats which are immune to the nation state’s conventional means of deterrence. Now delegitimized, the familiar nation state of the 20th century is giving way to what Bobbitt calls the “market state.” A key difference between the two orders is that whereas the nation state serves the welfare of the nation through public services and social safety nets, the market state maximizes economic opportunity for its citizens, while protecting them from environmental degradation and network-infiltrating dangers such as infectious disease and terrorism. The state’s role has evolved from managing the system for the benefit of the people, in competition with other states with different ideologies (the Cold War status quo), to protecting the system’s perimeters while allowing the people to manage themselves in a loosely controlled consumer marketplace of global extent (the Washington Consensus and the “End of History.”)

There is even more to this work, as it covers not just constitutional orders but also theories about international law, which necessarily transform in accordance with the evolving forms of the state. Bobbitt identifies a boundary or membrane between the realm of law, which orders society within the state’s purview, and that of strategy, which orders the interactions among states. The victory which legitimizes an order of the state amounts to the successful application of strategy, but with it comes an alteration of the international milieu, which renders that strategy untenable. In competing for the new strategy which ensures survival and dominance, states must necessarily evolve their own internal orders.

So, for example, the nation state strategy of massive conventional armed forces became obsolete in an era of WMDs (which can take out massed forces) and advanced computers (which make smaller forces much more effective). The United States responded by switching to a volunteer armed force, and developing theories of network-centric warfare.

Bobbitt sees the 21st century War on Terror as the epochal war driving the transition from nation state to market state. Presumably one of the Great Power civilizations will discover a successful strategic response to the security threat created by network-exploiting “bad actors,” one which has eluded the world so far. Whichever power does so will determine the ideal model of the market state.

The Shield of Achilles was followed by the equally magisterial Terror and Consent, which elaborates on the interplay between strategy and law in the case of the challenge of combating global networked terrorism. Bobbitt’s opinion is always worth seeking, because of his erudition and legal expertise, so I always look for his latest opinion pieces and interview. He has no regular column or web site that I know of, but here is a recent interview. As the world order continues to transform radically, I will keep searching for more of his insights.

The Crisis Era in Core versus Gap Terms

The Crisis Era in Core versus Gap Terms

In my last post I reviewed the strategic theory of Thomas P. M. Barnett. Now I want to look at the current Crisis Era in the U.S., particularly the recent political upheaval, and how it can be described from the perspective this theory provides. Luckily, Barnett himself does so in a blog post. What follows is my own summary.

Mission Aborted

The end of the Cold War saw the United States emerge as the global hegemon and sole superpower. The U.S. system of free market capitalism had prevailed over the statist central planning system of the U.S.S.R. An important factor was swinging the emerging New Core state of China toward the U.S. system.

In the new order, the world of superpower-led blocs transformed into a world of Core states (integrated, stable) and Gap states (non-integrated, unstable). Guiding the integration of the Gap into the Core in concert with the world’s other Great Powers was the new mission of the United States. In this way, threats emerging from the Gap could be contained and capital could flow freely to where it would do the most good for humanity.

This task proved to be beyond the creative capacity of the nation. Hampered by a dysfunctional political system and hung-up on old strategic paradigms, the United States abandoned the mission. It gave up its world leadership role, turning inward to nurse her grievances. The Globalization III era came to an end.

While the U.S. sorts out its internal issues, violence rages in the Gap, and authoritarian and nationalist movements make headway around the world.

Strategy Review: Core versus Gap

Strategy Review: Core versus Gap

Some time in the early 2000s I became acquainted with the thinking of Thomas P. M. Barnett, author of the book The Pentagon’s New Map. In this book he outlined a new paradigm for the deployment of U.S. military power in the post-Cold War era. Barnett was a strategist working for the Naval War College, and his geopolitical theory was radical, even – from the Pentagon’s perspective – apostate.

Basically, Barnett took a look at the post-Cold War military conflicts in which the United States had engaged, from the invasion of Panama in the waning years of the Soviet Union, up to the post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. His titular “New Map” divided the world into a “Functioning Core” of developed nations which were successfully integrated into the global economy, and a “Non-Integrated Gap” of failed nations where bad actors ran rampant and the U.S. was compelled to intervene militarily. From this simple concept a theory emerged of a new era of globalization in which the security threats to which the United States was responding arose from the disconnected status of the Gap nations – as he put it, “disconnectedness defines danger.”

The primary strategic goal for this new age was integrating the Gap with the Core, and as sole superpower America had a natural role to play in this process. Her conventional military force with its overwhelming power was what Barnett deemed a “Leviathan” force, and in conventional warfare the U.S. had no equal, as the recent invasion of Iraq had demonstrated. But what was also needed was a “Sys Admin” force for post-conflict stabilization (winning the peace); this is where allies with strong traditions of peacekeeping might come into play. With the right rule set for military intervention in the Gap, the end result would be increased connectivity with the Core. The military would just be kick starting this process; once the umbrella of security was provided, the private sector could take over. Globalization would spread, the Gap would shrink, and the world would be safer.

Barnett gives great presentations, and his “New Map” Brief is a classic. It was made in the early 2000s, at the heyday of his theory. The post-9/11 mind set was still fresh, and the U.S. security establishment was energized, as it struggled with the problems unleashed by the shock of 9/11 and subsequent U.S. response. In the brief Barnett preaches against the urge to throw up barriers to immigration and travel, to “firewall the Core against the Gap,” as he puts it, and encourages embracing globalization. As the 2000s continued, two sequels to the book followed which further developed his ideas.

Meanwhile, the Iraq War fiasco played out, and post-conflict stability proved elusive. I think Barnett’s theory lost its luster as a result, even though it never supported the careless invasion with no follow-up strategy practiced by the Bush administration (what he called “drive-by regime change”). Barnett never advocated that the U.S. become a “global cop” or act unilaterally (I remember him supporting Kerry in 2004), but rather that, with her preponderance of military power, the U.S. would inevitably end up shouldering much of the burden of conventional military action when it was necessary. But to shoulder that burden requires will, and after the long drawn-out suffering of the Iraq post-War, America lost that will, and through the Obama era and into the Trump era has withdrawn from the world.

At heart, Barnett’s theory is not militarily but economically deterministic, as he confirms in a blog post about a historian’s review of the third book in the trilogy. America as the victor of the Cold War had gifted the world with a free-market system which was elevating the bulk of humanity in the formerly impoverished Third World into a global middle class. In a world leadership role, presumably natural for a superpower hegemon, she could guide the development of that system and reap the most benefit from it. But after withdrawing into isolationism (“navel-gazing”), which is the choice the country has made, the system will continue to develop without her, its rules determined more and more by the new rising powers.

It’s nice to see that Barnett is still thinking strategically and creating briefs; there are links to a 2015 presentation up on his site. I recommend checking them out, because he is brilliant, a frank and humorous speaker, and he always makes you see things in a new light, or points out a trend or relationship that you weren’t aware existed before. Just the sort of thinking we need for the 21st century.

 

Today’s Shut-In Album: 50 Words For Snow

Today’s Shut-In Album: 50 Words For Snow

It’s a day to stay in, sheltered from the cold and feeling sickly. The perfect album for this quiet afternoon is 50 Words for Snow, from Kate Bush, released in 2011 and to date her latest studio album. Like her previous release, Aerial, the album reflects the maturation of the artist’s style, which has become more contemplative, and deeper in meaning, even as her voice has lowered with age. It’s slow and calm, heavy on the piano, with long-playing songs that take their time to develop, building to gentle crescendos and expressing subtle emotion. You almost need the muffled stillness of a snowy day to truly appreciate the music, and I always look forward to listening to it when such a day comes along.

Here is an excerpt, but do yourself a favor and listen to the whole album.

 

A Star Above

A Star Above

I wrote this story. I hope you enjoy it. Merry Christmas!

A Star Above

Not Quite a Christmas Story

Millions of years ago, in a time long forgotten, the shape of the land was not the same as it is today, and the Earth was ruled by the Saurians.

And it came to pass, one winter’s season, that a bright star shone in the sky above. It was so bright that the Saurians were certain it was a portent. So they asked the wisest among them what the star might signify.

The most wise of all the Saurians had a vision, and told it unto the others. “This star signifies that a child is hatched! A child who heralds a new age to come!”

“What will come in this new age?” cried the other wise ones.

“A new hope, and an end to the wickedness of our kind.”

“It is true that many Saurians are wicked,” agreed the others. “What shall we do now that we know of the meaning of the sign?”

“We must journey to where the child is hatched. If we follow the star it will guide us there.”

So the wisest of the Saurians, as well as two others who were fairly wise themselves, set out on a journey, walking across the great land, keeping the star ahead at all times.

“I think it is growing brighter,” said one of the three wise Saurians, one who had a large posterior and a long, sinuous neck, and came from the swampy regions.

“Yes, it must be nearing the time of the child’s hatching,” said the wisest of the three Saurians, who stood on two legs and could run very fast, and was from the grasslands.

“Is the time of the end of wickedness arriving? What should we do?” worried the last of the three, who had a shell, and a horny head, and was from the rocky places.

“Let us bring gifts to the hatchling,” said the wisest Saurian. “Do we have anything to bring?”

“I have these weeds from the swamp that I like to eat,” said the long-necked Saurian. “They smell real good.”

“I have some shiny rocks that I have collected,” said the horny-headed Saurian. “I think they are very pretty.”

“They are perfect,” said the bipedal Saurian. “We shall bring the fragrant plants and the shiny rocks as offerings to the hatchling who portends the dawn of a new age.”

So they walked on, carrying their gifts, following the star, which grew ever brighter in the sky above. At last they came to a place where a herd of Saurians grazed on the grassy hills.

The wisest Saurian spoke to one of the herd, “Have you heard of a child who is hatched, and portends a new age, as signified by the bright star above?”

“Yes,” said the other, “many of us have gone to visit the child. But it is not hatched.”

“Not hatched? It is still in its egg?”

“The child is born, but not of an egg.”

“A child born not of an egg!” cried the three wise Saurians. “Truly this is a miracle!”

So they went together to where the child was born, and saw it in a little nest, where other Saurians stood around, bowing in awe before it. It was a creature not like a Saurian, tiny and covered in fur.

“That is – different,” said the wisest of the Saurians.

“Yes,” said the other. “It is not a Saurian like us, but a Mammal. And it portends a new age.”

“We have brought gifts for the Mammal child.”

“You can just put them over there.”

And the star above grew ever brighter, and then fell to Earth, and the Saurians and their wicked ways were ended forever. And the Mammal and all of its kind came to rule the Earth in their stead, as they do to this very day.

The End?

In The Zeitgeist With Lady Gaga

In The Zeitgeist With Lady Gaga

I think Lady Gaga is a very talented singer-songwriter, and perhaps underappreciated as a musical artist because there is so much focus on her popularity, branding, and extravagant performance art. I wanted to take a look at some of the songs off of her 2016 album “Joanne” and the ways in which they reflect the Millennial zeitgeist. Lady Gaga (real name Stefani Germanotta) is a Millennial herself, born in 1986 in Manhattan, New York.

The first song to consider is “Come to Mama,” which is like a loving call for a regeneracy mood and an end to the Culture Wars partisan divide. The lyrics refer to divisions of opinion, which could line up with the left v. right split in politics. The chorus evokes the image of a mother with arms outstretched, calling to a child who is crying after a playground quarrel.

So why do we gotta fight over ideas?
We’re talkin’ the same old shit after all of these years
Come to mama
Tell me who hurt ya
There’s gonna be no future
If we don’t figure this out
Oh, come tomorrow
Who are you gonna follow?
There’s gonna be no future
If we don’t figure this out

Mama acknowledges that the child has a grievance but insists that differences must be worked out, as we have been fighting for far too long. I can just picture Lady Gaga reaching out to hug and comfort all the Trump supporters who are upset over the way the world has turned out. Then next all the social justice warriors who can’t stand any opinion that a Trump supporter might have.

The next song to look at is “Angel Down.” This is a lament about the tragedy of gun violence and our society’s inability to cope with it. The setting chosen for the act of violence is the street by a church, and the lyrics speak to the lack of engagement in our society (we used to meet at the church) and the failure of social media to substitute for more traditional institutions in providing moral grounding. We are spectators to the disintegration of society, unable to respond effectively.

I confess I am lost
In the age of the social
On our knees, take a test
To be lovin’ and grateful

Shots were fired on the street
By the church where we used to meet
Angel down, angel down
But the people just stood around

It is like a protest song, but where a Boomer protest song would have castigated the existing leadership, this Millennial song cries out for leadership that is not there.

I’m a believer, it’s chaos
Where are our leaders?
Oh, oh, oh
I’d rather save an angel down

The last song to examine is “Grigio Girls,” which is on the deluxe edition of the album. A Millennial woman sings about a Gen-X friend and mentor who supported her through her quarter-life crisis. She looked up to her friend, admiring how she was able to thrive despite the chaos of the world, and learning from her the Xer art of being still in your personal space and just chilling out.

I was twenty-three
She was thirty-five
I was spiralling out
And she was so alive
A Texas girl real strong
Taught me this strong song

On this foundation she erects her support network, gathering with her peers to share alcohol (the social drug) and have a safe space to vent. In a world of overwrought emotion, you must find a way to keep cool.

So when I’m feeling small
I toss that cork and call
All the Pinot, Pinot Grigio girls
Pour your heart out
Watch your blues turn gold
All the Pinot, Pinot Grigio girls
Keep it real cold
‘Cause it’s a fired-up world

She celebrates the camaraderie of conventional young women gathering and having a conventionally good time.

So we’ll turn on a bachelorette
Dye Ashley’s hair red
And then we’ll have our sixth
Spice girl in this bitch

This song has a deeper personal meaning for the artist, whose middle name, by the way, is Joanne. She explains her intended meaning in this interview:

Lady Gaga Discusses Sonja, from Her Song ‘Grigio Girls’

Things to Come – A Prescient Look At The Future

Things to Come – A Prescient Look At The Future

I recently watched H.G. WellsThings to Come (available on Amazon prime video) and discovered that it tells the tale of a saeculum from Crisis through to the next Awakening, but with a stretched out timeline. It also has early examples of a lot of film tropes.

By saeculum, I mean the social cycle as defined in Strauss and Howe generational theory, which you can learn more about here.

[MASSIVE SPOILERS FOLLOW]

The movie was made in 1936, and its story starts in that year, as the Crisis Era looms. There are rumors of war, making it contemporaneously relevant. There is a bit of a friendly discussion between two characters of the likelihood of war and the nature of progress.

The U.S. uses “peace gas” to end the most recent Crisis Era war.

Then the war comes, and rages for three decades and more. Civilization is ruined, the war is unresolved yet in 1970, and the film has now introduced the post-apocalyptic genre, complete with a plague that turns people into zombie-like creatures. The plague is eradicated, and peace comes at last when a benevolent scientifically advanced alliance deploys a super-weapon – sleeping gas, which they call “the gas of peace.”

Next an expansionist High Era begins, and we get a montage of civilizational development, taking us to a sci-fi world that fits the conventional mid-twentieth century vision of the future. Everything is shiny and sterile, and people dress in styles reminiscent of classical Greece and Rome.

It’s now 2036, and the hubristic future civilization is preparing to send the first humans into lunar orbit, using the method commonly envisaged before the rocket age – a space gun. But the Awakening Era has begun, which is a time of spiritual upheaval and of questioning the current regime. A firebrand preacher arises, denounces the lunar project and stirs up the masses against it. The launch happens anyway and the movie ends with more philosophical ruminations on progress.

So the movie covers a half-saeculum, spread out over a century. It’s as though H.G. Wells understood the saeculum, if not its generation-length timing. It’s impressive that he got two predictions correct – the use of a super weapon to end the Big War, and the fact that the next Awakening begins at the same time as the first manned missions to the moon.

It’s a good film, well worth the hour and a half viewing time. The version on Amazon is colorized and restored, which I think helps to make it more watchable.