Entering 2024
I heard a Lewis Black bit on the Daily Show where he said that 2023 was the first year since the pandemic that felt almost normal. In our world, what with the return of live theater, it does feel that way, though you still see some people in audiences wearing face masks, since the pandemic isn’t really over. The COVID-19 pandemic will possibly continue for the rest of our lives, as the AIDS pandemic has, and COVID has killed almost as many people as AIDS has cumulatively, in 10% of the time.
As for a return to normalcy, well, maybe, except I still worry about what will happen in this country on the political front. I do have a hope that our relatively high levels of prosperity will save us from a complete breakdown, though I have forebodings of a consitutional crisis to come. The first month of 2024 could be very eventful.
I’ve listed below the current ages of the living generations in the United States, as 2023 comes to an end. We are almost, but not quite, to the point where each archetype fills an age bracket. When that happens, we will be close to the end of the Crisis Era.
- Greatest: 99+
- Silent: 81-98
- Boomer: 63-80
- GenX: 42-62
- Millennial: 19-41
- Homeland: 0-18
Which means this era isn’t over yet, pandemic or no pandemic, normal or not normal. And people sense that, which is where memes like the one on the right are coming from.
So just be aware, and pay attention as these oh-so-interesting times unfold.
With all that said, I hope you and your family have a safe, prosperous, and happy New Year.
2 thoughts on “Entering 2024”
Steve, you wrote:
“I’ve listed below the current ages of the living generations in the United States, as 2023 comes to an end. We are almost, but not quite, to the point where each archetype fills an age bracket. When that happens, we will be close to the end of the Crisis Era.
Greatest: 99+
Silent: 81-98
Boomer: 63-80
GenX: 42-62
Millennial: 19-41
Homeland: 0-18”
Please forgive me for adding a little more context and alignment with the criteria of the 4th Turning that might help frame and give perspective to our current location in the Crisis Era relative to the Climax Phase of the Crisis Era.
Neil Howe has said this 4th Turning started in 2008 with the Great Recession. Howe also forecast the ending in 2032 but could be as early as 2030. From end of the last crisis era in 1944 to 2032 is 88 years. However the prior three Crisis-to-Crisis times were 81, 82 and 92 years for an average of 82 years. That means the end of this Crisis Era would be closer to 2026 (1944+82).
Boomers, GenX and Millennials do not fill their archetype role until they are forced to during the Climax Phase of the Crisis Era. A few Boomers have shown signs of the Prophet archetype in their public dialogue warning about the future. Only when the three generations align in Elderhood, Midlife and Young Adulthood will the crisis climax get resolved.
Who are the Gray Champions that revive our civic authority? Maybe history will determine AG Merrick Garland is a Gray Champion. In addition to his exceptional intelligence and public devotion, he is unquestionably a person of integrity, honor and morality. The appointment of GenX Special Counsel Jack Smith created the Boomer/GenX alignment needed to revive America’s civic order.
Boomers are ending a long run as the dominant generation in the US electorate. By 2024, estimated eligible voters:
Millennials = 45%
GenX = 31%
Boomers = 23%
America’s institutional life was torn down from 2008 until end of 2023. America began slowly rebuilding from the ground up with the transformation of transportation, energy, food and agriculture as forecast by Tony Saba. This technology based transformation impacts society values and our institutions rules and laws. The Magnificent 7 stocks define a new political power that will continue to transform society in the future.
When will the three generations fill their age cohorts: Elderhood, Mid-life and Young Adulthood? That is the beginning of the Climax Phase of the Crisis Era.
Richard
Richard,
Thanks for the many thoughts and analysis. Neil Howe, in the new book, offers a variety of ways to attempt to predict the timing of the remainder of the Crisis Era, but of course one can only know for sure in retrospect. Hindsight is indeed 20/20 vision.
I’m not sure about naming a Gray Champion, as in who is the pivotal leader of the era. The Boomer who has most successfully rallied the energies of the Crisis generational constellation is, of course, Donald Trump, but you are clearly not on his side. His chicanery makes him an unlikely candidate, but who knows what is to come.
You seem to have great admiration for the power of tech companies, but I wonder how they tie in to actual civil renewal? Your vision is one of tech corporatocracy where the only role of government is to act as a judicial watchdog – but who are they protecting?
-Steve