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Month: February 2025

2025 State of the Coup

2025 State of the Coup

After January 6, I wrote a post about the “state of the coup.” As I saw it then, the fury of the MAGA crowd had broken against the valiant defense by law enforcement at the Capitol, and the MAGA faction was in retreat. I linked to a video that explains how coups work: they require the support of “keys to power” in business, the military and the police, which Trump’s faction did not have. All the way back in 2021, he had been banned from Twitter, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff had issued a statement affirming their loyalty to the Constitution. Without allies among these key elements of society, Trump could not succeed in overthrowing constitutional democracy, and it looked to me like he and his movement were sidelined, hopefully to expire. I really thought we were going “blue zone!

My, how things have changed.

Since 2021, Twitter has changed ownership and transformed into an alt-right platform. With the help of that platform and other right-wing media, MAGA has seized control of all branches of the United States Federal government. After the reelection of Donald J. Trump by a popular plurarity (probably), the country’s billionaire overclass was quick to bend the knee. They read the writing on the wall.

That’s one key down.

With the help of a partisan and willing Senate, the President has installed loyalists in top government posts in the military and law enforcement. His white Christian nationalist pick for Secretary of Defense has already purged the Joint Chiefs of Staff of its members who were not white men (“DEI hires” is the code word). The Director and Deputy Director at the F.B.I, as well as the Attorney General, are all Trump loyalists, and will likely weaponize their departments as tools of political enforcement.

There go the other keys.

The new regime is openly white supremacist, complete with Nazi salutes. It is also nakedly authoritarian, ignoring constitutional constraints. The President has granted the billionaire owner of Twitter, who possibly did the most to help him get elected, the privilege to loot government data and terrorize federal workers, all in the name of “efficiency.” It’s plainly a tit-for-tat favor to let him lock in government contracts for his businesses and end the multiple investigations against them. The MAGA base, obsessed with Culture Wars touchpoints and easily fooled, plays along. It would be positively Orwellian if it weren’t so blatantly fraudulent.

The Musk-DOGE takeover or “billionaire coup” is an attempt at state capture under the cover of eliminating waste, fraud and abuse. First, get rid of all officials actually preventing waste, fraud and abuse (Inspectors General). Then, weaken the agencies with demoralizing attacks and bullshit memes that the MAGA base laps up. Finally, steer all that taxpayer money into your own companies. Coup achieved!

If the courts try to stop you, that’s where you pull out your “unitary executive theory,” a.k.a. “Trump is King.” So now you have an authoritarian regime with a conservative agenda and total control of the government, in lockstep alliance with powerful business interests. This is just fascism, right?

I’ve been getting a lot of my info from substack lately, since it seems to be where all the intellectuals are hanging out these days. I was struck by a post from John Ganz, because of the insight it gave me into the coup event. The post looks into an academic book on the fascist movements of the early 20th century, which has as a thesis that (I quote Ganz) “fascism arose out of situations in Europe where there was dense civic association combined with a weak political class, unable to exercise hegemony – national political leadership.” To quote more from the post:

Fascism, a political project aiming to establish a new relationship between the nation and the state, can be expected to emerge where social elites fail to develop hegemonic political organizations in the context of rapid civil society development. The fascist political project arises as an attempt to redress this problem of hegemonic weakness by creating an authoritarian democracy: a regime that claims to represent the people or nation but rejects parliamentary institutional forms.

I’d say that describes the MAGA movement pretty well. I mean, millions of people voted for Trump to be King, it seems. Precisely because they wanted to redress the “hegemonic weakness” – that is, percieved ineffectiveness – of the existing political system. As a narrative it fits well with what is expected in a Fourth Turning or Crisis Era: changes in the social order outpaced the political order, which became unable to adapt, and is now being torn down and rebuilt.

It’s traumatic, to be sure, and it sucks that some real dipshit a*holes are going to be prime beneficiaries. It sucks that thousands will die needlessly from piss-poor social policies. That, sadly, is the price we pay for MAGA winning the 2024 election.

Last year, when it became clear during the primaries that Trump was rising up like some undead lich lord, seemingly immune to all the “lawfare” waged against him, and that the MAGA movement was alive and well, I warned about the red zone’s greater solidarity, and the need for the opposition to rally to counter them. We needed the same “group feeling” that MAGA has, but sadly we couldn’t match them.

The opposition now seems demoralized and leaderless. The resistance is much more muted than it was in 2017, with smaller numbers of protestors taking to the streets, and most blue zoners like me simply venting on social media. Does this mean the red zoners have won the Culture War, and are now going to consolidate their power?

I wouldn’t jump to that conclusion just yet. While MAGA loyalists will be willing to endure the pain of Trump 2.0 (that’s also part of the Fourth Turning dynamic), there will be plenty of seething discontent for the opposition to exploit. Sooner or later the Trump-Musk diumvirate will overplay its hand.

Meanwhile, we should continue to champion our righteous causes: women’s liberation, equal rights for LGBTQ, rights for immigrants, social welfare. We absolutely should be calling our representatives and letting them know what we stand for, and expecting them to answer to us. We still have our Constitution, threatened though it may be, and as citizens we should assert our rights within its framework. And go ahead and assert your consumer power as well, by boycotting where you can, or particpating in Economic Blackouts like the one on February 28. I know I will be.

An upside-down U.S. flag, a sign of national distress, hung by fired workers at Yosemite National Park
Welcome to “Black Mirror”

Welcome to “Black Mirror”

Or, When Life Imitates Sci-Fi

As a sci-fi fan, it always fascinates me when events in the real world look like something out of a science fiction story. This happens because the authors of science fiction are paying attention to trends and making rational projections about what the future will be like – and sometimes they get it right. They also get it wrong a lot. As I’ve noted in a previous post, sci-fi has been way too optimistisc about one particular trend: the extent of human space exploration. And sci-fi authors in the cyberpunk genre way overestimated how stylish and cool our near-future dystopias would turn out.

I thought it would be fun not fun to list out some stories from recent and recent-ish sci-fi television and film, and then find examples in real life of their speculations about technology actually coming true. I will start with Black Mirror, the dystopian anthology series from Netflix, and go episode by episode. Black Mirror pretty obviously gets a lot of story ideas from how tech currently intersects with our lives, so it’s not surprising that I found so many examples.

NOTE: I’m including synopses of the episodes which might be spoiler-y.

Black Mirror episodes

S1: E3 The Entire History of You: In the future, everyone has a device in their head that records their experience. A couple quarrels over suspicions of infidelity, and the recording provides the proof. The idea of having a device implanted in your brain or eye that records your life experience was also explored in the 2004 sci-fi film The Final Cut, which I like, if only because it stars Robin Williams. While we are nowhere close to achieving implants that record subjective experience, we do carry around records of our lives with us wherever we go. I’m talking, of course, about the feeds on our smartphones. Our devices pester us with “memories” of what we were doing one, two, or ten years ago, and scrolling through our social media profiles and chat histories reveals a lot about who we are and what we’ve been up to. Show me that phone in your pocket, baby!

S2: E1 Be Right Back: A woman purchases an android replica of her deceased husband, crafted to look just like him, with a personality created by scrubbing his online profile. We certainly don’t have anything like natural-looking humanoid autonomous robots; at best we have utilitarian bipedal bots, and human-like robots that are deep in the uncanny valley. But we do have the ability to digitally recreate people! Deepfake technology, using artificial intelligence, can create passable images, videos, and even audio imitating a specific person. The potential for abuse and fraud is frightening. And AI models can be trained to mimic individuals, just by interviewing them for a couple of hours. So you could clone your loved ones, if only in text conversation form.

S3: E1 Nosedive: A young woman’s social climbing aspirations are thwarted when her social rating plummets in a spiralling series of mishaps. How do you think you would rate on a 5-star scale if everyone around you constantly rated you and the ratings averaged out? Think you would get into the high 4s because of how awesome you are, or get stuck in the mid-3s because you’re basic? You probably wouldn’t act like a jerk all the time and let yourself sink below a 3 – like what happens to the main character in this episode. Luckily, you don’t have to worry about the value of your social rating – unless, that is, you live in China. In China, the government has implemented a social credit system that monitors its citizens, and yeah, your social credit rating affects things like what housing and services you have access to, and where you can travel. Think about that the next time you use an app that hosts its servers there.

S3: E4 San Junipero: A dying woman explores a simulated reality where she can exist after death, in a kind of virtual afterlife. This is actually one my favorite episodes, because of its poignant love story and its 1980s nostalgia. But I don’t have a match for it in real life, because I don’t believe that it’s premise is at all realistic. It is not possible to “transfer” consciousness because consciousness is not a property of the human brain that can be extracted or copied – it is the fundamental ground of reality within which our brains and minds exist. This is a philosophical point which I bring up because so many Black Mirror episodes feature consciousness created by simulation and that is just not a thing. But those episodes are fun, because sci-fi is still fun even when it’s way off the mark. Also, if you like this premise, you might enjoy the show Upload on Amazon Prime Video.

S3: E6 Hated in the Nation: A disgruntled tech guy programs a bunch of miniature robot bugs to fly around and kill targeted people using facial recognition technology. This is a scary one to have come true, and I’m afraid I have to report that it has. The Israeli army has been using artificial intelligence and machine learning to build target lists of Gazans who are deemed likely to be Hamas operatives, and then using those lists to direct their bombing campaigns. The project pre-dates October 7, but it has been used extensively in the current Gazan war. The algorithm is fed all kinds of data, not facial images, and the Israeli strikes aren’t as precise as killer bees, but the carnage is just the same.

S4: E5 Metalhead: A small group of possibly burglars encounters a robot guard dog at a warehouse and are relentlessly hunted down by it. You might have heard of Ukraine’s extensive use of drones in their current defensive war against the Russian invaders. There was actually a battle in which the Ukrainians used exclusively robotic and unmanned equipment, meaning not a single one of their personnel was at risk. This is the future of warfare right here, so you probably won’t have to worry about the draft coming for your boys – so long as you’re not from Russia or North Korea.

Her

Her is a  Spike Jonze film from 2013 about a man who develops a relationship with an artificial intelligence, inspired by the AI chat technology that existed then. Now, the ability to have a text conversation with a computer program actually goes way back. A chatbot called ELIZA was created in the 1960s, intended to simulate a therapist, and is famously the first program to be able to attempt the Turing test. In the movie Her, the main character falls in love with the AI, whom we presume by the film’s premise is an actual sentient being. Real life AI chatbots are not sentient; rather, they are computationally intensive algorithms that regurgitate passably human conversation, and may well be able to pass the Turing test. And – here’s the tie-in – you can have one for a girlfriend or a boyfriend if you’d like, thanks to a plethora of sites that offer that as a service. I am not comfortable linking to any of these sites, but a web search will quickly uncover them.

Minority Report

In the 2002 film Minority Report, based on a Philip K. Dick story, a “Precrime” police department uses precognitive psychics to identify crimes just before they happen, then intercedes and arrests the soon-to-be perpetrators before the crimes actually occur. It’s an interesting premise that raises legal and moral questions, which we probably won’t have to deal with since we don’t have reliable psychics to work with in our world. But wait – we do have AI, and wouldn’t you know it, they’re working on using it to predict when crimes could be imminent, based on behavioral and environmental factors. You could also think of this trend as yet another job (security guard) eventually being replaced by AI.

The Peripheral

In this book by cyberpunk pioneer William Gibson, sinister corporate powers from a far future use a kind of time travel to influence a near-future timeline for their own nefarious purposes. The book inspired a TV series that is only kind of faithful to the story, and doesn’t quite capture the enormity of what they are doing (maybe just because it was canceled after one season). When these time meddlers influence the past, they create a branching timeline, and so are unaffected in their own timeline by what they do. They use their advanced knowledge and tech to wreak havoc on the world economy, essentially crashing civilization in an alternate reality just for a small advantage in their own reality. Wait – does that sound anything like what’s going on now with Musk and DOGE? Could he be from another timeline? Yikes! This post for entertainment purposes only.

Recipe for a Constitutional Crisis

Recipe for a Constitutional Crisis

Unless you’re living under a rock, you know that the current administration has handed unprecedented power to a private citizen who is not an elected official or even a vetted official, and is acting outside of the legal framework defined by the U.S. Consitution. Another way to put it: he is acting illegally. As Timothy Snyder puts it, this, of course, is a coup.

The ongoing actions by Musk and his followers are a coup because the individuals seizing power have no right to it. Elon Musk was elected to no office and there is no office that would give him the authority to do what he is doing. It is all illegal. It is also a coup in its intended effects: to undo democratic practice and violate human rights.

Just read through this ProPublica story about the dismantling of USAID for a long litany of privacy rights violations, breeches of trust, and end runs around Constitutional safeguards.

“It’s very hard not to see what’s going on as a constitutional crisis,” said Peter Shane, a law professor and one of the country’s leading scholars on the Constitution.

Well, yeah. It’s clear that the President does not intend to be checked by either the legislature or the courts. If no one stops him, the Constitution is a dead letter, and our status as citizens of the United States is in jeopardy.

Now one has to wonder why, with Congress in the hands of the Republicans, the party doesn’t simply undertake to rejigger the Federal bureacracy through legal, Constitutional means. Heather Cox Richardson argues that it’s because the deep cuts the President wants are unpopular, and Republicans in Congress prefer to distance themselves from responsibility for them. By doing that, of course, they are surrendering their role in government and their power.

But permitting a private citizen to override the will of our representatives in Congress destroys the U.S. Constitution. It also makes Congress itself superfluous. And it takes the minority rule Republicans have come to embrace to the logical end of putting government power in the hands of one man.

But I have to wonder – could it simply be that this administration sees doing anything by Constiutiional means as too hopelessly complicated and process-bound? Neither of the two members of the diumvirate (if that’s what it is) is temperamentally inclined to ask for permission to do anything. They might see their election victory as a mandate to implement their agenda by any means necessary, rules be damned.

How did we get here? When I look back over my political posts over the years (many of which seem so pathetically naive now), the path is pretty clear.

For decades, our Federal government has been gridlocked by hyperpartisanship, following a takeover by the Boomer generation (the infamous “Gingrich revolution” in 1994). From then on, it was effectively hobbled by its system of checks and balances, combined with the nearly 50-50 split between the partisan factions. The Boomers were more interested in arguing than in governing.

Along comes a paticularly nasty Boomer, who sees an opportunity to exploit popular discontent with this state of affairs and offers himself as The Guy Who Can Fix It. He’s clearly a con man, he’s reckless and he’s lawless, but that doesn’t deter a significant percentage of voters. Despite his lawlessness, indeed possibly even because of it, he wins a second term to the Presidency after a disastrous first term followed by a respite.

Who could see lawlessness as a qualification for holding office? Well, how about the generation that brags online about how they were raised without boundaries and stalks your social media feed with mocking laughing emojis? You know the one I’m talking about:

I stole the graphic above from self-identified Gen X substacker Jon Miltimore. As he puts it in a post about our generation and the election:

We played outside all day without adult supervision and rode bikes without helmets. We’re anti-snowflake. We believe in morals but we shun moral preening. We have little tolerance for the speech police, laugh at off-color jokes (even when we’re not supposed to), and are almost impossible to offend (unless you say “that’s offensive.”)

Am I generalizing? Of course. People are individuals, and not everyone in Gen X embodies these traits. But Gen X, as a whole, does—and it might help explain why Gen X put Donald Trump back in the Oval Office.

Trump’s vulgarity and coarse language, which offends so many Baby Boomers and Millennials, is less likely to bother people in my generation. Hell, for some, it’s what they love about him. He’s the Happy Gilmore of politics, the boisterous upstart the fans love but the elites despise.

The argument is simple here. The Gen X attitude is: if the laws don’t work, then fuck ’em. Just ignore them. That’s how you get to where we are today, with a government that ignores the U.S. Constitution.

Can the Constitution be restored? Rebuilt? Or is this a Humpty-Dumpty scenario, like trying to unscramble an egg? It’s possible that, after the colossal failures and depredations that are bound to come with the new administration, some semblance of the old ways can be brought back. Perhaps altered to accomodate all that has changed in the interim.

Another substacker (one of my favorites), Thomas P. M. Barnett, sees it too. He gets the generational angle, though he doesn’t treat it as rosily. He recognizes the danger were in, and the fact that we’ve created a Terror State – what you always get with authoritarian rule.

That deeply-but-evenly-divided electorate wasn’t changing, resulting in change election after change election (stretching back to 2006) with no real change ensuing even as the general angst and anger of the electorate ballooned over time.

As much as the Left wants to blame Trump’s win on his duplicity (like denying Project 2025 right up to the vote and then immediately implementing it upon inauguration), the scarier truth is that the majority of Americans are open to letting this Trump smash! dynamic unfold.

It’s so Boomer, right? One last crazy, self-destructive “revolution” by that generation?

He is spot on with the Boomers being a destructive generation. They burned down the college campuses in the 1960s, and now they’re burning down the halls of Congress in the 2020s. Gen Xers, their accomplices in government, are happy to stand back and watch the fire. It’s a dangerous combination of generations to be in charge, but unfortunately we’re stuck with them – at least for a while. Younger generations will get their chance eventually. At that point, we can probably say we’ve made it through the Crisis Era.

Diversity in the Workplace – What Does It Mean?

Diversity in the Workplace – What Does It Mean?

This is a subject I have shied away from on this blog, because of its sensitivity. Recent political developments, however, make it a timely topic.

I’ll start by stating that I believe that when MAGA uses the terms “DEI” and “woke” as pejoratives, it is code for a racist desire to entrench white privilege. That is a big part of the MAGA agenda – somehow restoring the America of the past that was almost entirely white, with black people segregated in separate spaces, women in their place, and gays in the closet. It’s a hopeless cause, but not a difficult one to understand, as a basic reactionary movement.

Just look at the chart below, from a Pew Research study. In 1960, when America was still “great,” its population was 85% white. By 2050, it will be less than 50% white. This is the future that MAGA fears, and calls for mass deportation of “illegals” are an effort to recreate past American ethnic cleansing projects.

Unfortunately for the dreams of MAGA, demography has an inexorable logic – the numbers are baked in decades in advance. That’s what makes these projections possible. Any effort to reverse this trend significantly would be insanely expensive – materially, politically, and morally.

But then, if it’s inevitable that whites will lose majority status, do we need DEI in the long term?

I’ll note that “DEI” as a human resources concept encompasses way more than trying to manage or enforce racial and gender diversity in the workforce. It’s full meaning is beyond the scope of this post, and not something I have expertise with. What I do know is what it’s like working at a desk job, in the field of information technology, and I can share my own experiences and thoughts.

Let’s consider what might be the key complaint about valuing diversity in and of itself: that this goes against the concept of meritocracy. This is (goes the logic) how you get a “DEI hire” – someone who isn’t fully qualified for the job. During the hiring process, an allowance was made for diversity, and that shut out more qualified people who happened to be homogenous with the rest of the workforce. That is, white guys didn’t get hired because of DEI.

Here, I’ll let the Daily Show crew explain it. They’re so good at it:

Jon Stewart’s comment about resetting to factory default on the definition of competence (white guys are assumed to be the most competent) echoes what I’m saying about the MAGA agenda. But I can state, from my work experience, that there is no correlation between competence and either race or sex. I have met both competent and mediocre people of any race or sex in my career, and just figured out how to work with them. Honestly, I have never encountered any situation where there was a “diversity hire.” I have encountered nepotism, which also goes against meritocracy, but that’s another thing.

Granted, I have only worked in the private sector, and my range of personal exposure does not constitute a statistical sample size. But, to my knowledge, companies hire based on a balance of qualification and payroll cost (they have to hire within budgets). Again, it could be different in the public sector, where there have been affirmative action programs, though if you look at the history of affirmative action, that has been rolled back in our time (and I mean decades ago).

Affirmative action was described by Michael Lind as a “racial spoils system” designed to quiet the unrest of the 1960s. A small number of non-whites were allowed into the elite class (that is, they got good jobs) so that whites could remain on top of the heap without more civil rights agitation. Lind saw this as a perversion of the famous statement by Martin Luther King, Jr. about seeing through skin color, which Josh Johnson starts to quote in the video above. But affirmative action is in the past now, and is not what is meant when companies today institute DEI.

Now what I have seen at places where I have been employed is striking patterns in the racial composition of the workforce – more of a “racial caste system.” I’ll explain.

First, it’s noteworthy that in my field, Information Technology, there is a predominance of visa workers from India, a pattern that’s been going on since the mid-2000s. If you are a software person in the desk set, like me, you know what I’m talking about. At one company where I worked in the mid-2010s, the IT workforce was about 50% Indian and 50% white. At another, in the late 2010s, it was more like 80% Indian and 20% white! And I really mean that, of the workers who weren’t Indian (the Americans), almost all were white. There might be one or two African-Americans, or one Hispanic (do I count?), or one East Asian, but not enough to make up a significant percentage.

At the same time, among the staff who weren’t IT workers, the racial composition was much different. At the first company, the custodial staff was 100% Hispanic, and most barely spoke any English – they were obviously outsourced immigrants from Central America, on work visas. The security staff and the cafeteria workers were about 50/50 white and black, clearly recruited from the less educated local workforce. At the second company, which was in a different city and state than the first, the custodial staff also included women from Eastern Europe (judging by overhearing them talk). Meanwhile, the security staff was 100% African-American. They were impeccably dressed and incredibly professional – the company that handled security was a locally owned African-American business with a strong work ethic.

Where did these stark contrasts in the racial make-up by position type come from? Was there some hidden racial quota system? Were the hiring managers all racists? No, I don’t think so. Rather, these companies were hiring from specific pools of workers, which happened to have specifc racial profiles. Custodial service jobs are particularly low-paying, and so the positions were filled by immigrants on visas – immigrants from the world’s poorer countries. Other semi-skilled jobs got filled from the local population, so that workforce had a racial make-up that matched that of the locals.

And the skilled IT jobs? Well, those hired out of an available pool of college degreed professionals with very specific skill sets. I have talked with IT hiring managers who say they want to hire Americans if possible, but just don’t get enough applicants. So when tech execs complain that they need more H-1Bs to fill their open positions, they are not making this up just to save money.

The fact is, India has trained a huge cadre of young professionals in software engineering, and the United States has not. And most of the U.S. software professionals are white, either because that’s who can afford college, or because for some reason whites are more drawn to software engineering than other races. At least that’s what it looks like from my perspective.

For the most part our economy is meritocratic, and DEI frameworks don’t change that. Meritocracy itself leads to the patterns of race in the workplace that I have noted – a sort of race-based caste system that emerges because of the opportunities available to different groups of people based on where they were born. This is the main driver of “diversity” as I have encountered it in the workplace.

On the job, everyone gets along just fine, no matter their race. But, of course, everyone is on their best behavior, because everyone wants to stay employed and maintain their income. Secretly, people might be harboring resentments, and expressing them at the ballot box.

If it really is a goal to eliminate the need for visa workers, and to have a workforce that evenly reflects the native-born population in terms of racial makeup, then I have some specific policy proposals. That would be to raise the minimum wage, and to tax the rich and use the money to educate the poor. That should include free college education options. But of course, all this would only have an effect in the long term, and none of it is part of the MAGA Project 2025 agenda anyway. They just want to bring back white power – but time is working against them.